摘要
本文从理论上分析了灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型的适用条件.针对电力系统中电力需求增长的特点,提出了分段最优GM(1,1)模型。利用电力需求的增长与国民经济增长的相关关系,把分段最优GM(1,1)模型应用于长期电力需求预测,并用实例证明了此方法的可行性。
In this paper the application conditions of the grey prediction GM(1,1) are studied and the method of section optimization for GM(1,1) model in the long-term forecasting load is proposed. The load is forecasted in accordance with the relation between the increments of the electric power demanded and the incre- ments of national economy. The calculation result has proved that this method is feasible and effective.
出处
《上海交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第5期98-103,共6页
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
灰色系统理论
负荷预测
电力需求
grey theory
load forecasting
electric power demand
