摘要
针对现阶段对于可靠性发展目标缺少有效决策工具的问题,提出地区供电网中长期可靠性发展模型,该模型根据供电网发展过程对可靠性指标的变化趋势进行总结,利用灰色系统预测对模型进行求解,得到供电网可靠性年度指标预测函数、供电网可靠性的饱和特性及其出现时间。最后,通过实际地区供电网的数据分析及算例验证了该模型的有效性。
Aiming at problem of lacking effective decision tools for reliability development at present stage,this paper pro-poses medium-long term reliability development model for regional power supply network which is able to make summariza-tion for variation trend of reliability index according to power supply network developing process and acquire yearly index forecasting function,saturation characteristic and its appearing time for power supply network reliability by using grey sys-tem forecast for solution to the model.Finally,it verifies effectiveness of this model by data analysis and example of practi-cal regional power supply network.
出处
《广东电力》
2014年第6期38-42,63,共6页
Guangdong Electric Power
基金
国家科技支撑项目(2013BAA01B03)
关键词
地区供电网
可靠性发展模型
饱和特性
灰色系统
分类评估
regional power supply network
reliability development model
saturation characteristic
grey system
classifica-tion assessment
