摘要
经济增长的过程总是伴随着经济波动,经济增长率时高时低,呈现出周期性的变化趋势,探究经济周期的政治决定因素,便构成政治经济周期理论。已有文献使用实际数据进行经验检验时,常得出不一致的结果,其主要原因在于并未明确区分政策的决策环境因素。政治经济周期的强度大小、规律性强弱以及包含的内容都会在不同的环境下呈现差异,产生"环境效应"的因素会因政策、国家、时机而不同,这些因素包括经济政策和产出的属性、决策者的连任及党派性动机,还包括政府间、政府内、政府外的决策权在执行者间的分配,以及政策效果和可操作性。如何真正将中国特定的决策环境融入到政治经济周期理论之中,探究政治因素对中国经济变动产生影响的机制,谋求政治经济体制改革的良性互动,将具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。
The process of economic growth The intensity, rule and content of the political- is always accompanied by economic tluctuatlons. economic cycle will be presented in different ways with different environment. The factors of “environmental effect” differ due to the different poli- cies, countries, and timings. These factors include economic policy and its output attributes, the decision maker＇s re-election and partisanship motivation, the distribution of decision-making pow- er for performers between, inside and outside the government, as well as the policy effect and op- eration. How to emerge China＇s specific decision-making environment into the political-economic cycle theory and exploring the mechanism of the impact of political factor upon China＇s economic changes, will be of major theoretical and practical significance.
出处
《教学与研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期75-85,共11页
Teaching and Research
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金项目"中国企业应对国际贸易壁垒的策略体系--基于厂商异质性和内生保护理论的研究"(项目号:13XNI006)的阶段性成果
关键词
政治经济周期
决策环境
选举周期
理性党派理论
political-economic cycle
decision context
election cycle
rational partisan theory
