摘要
风电场输出功率的不确定性使风电并网后电力系统的调度决策面临新的挑战。对风电场输出功率进行预测是消纳大规模风电的基础工作,在此基础上对预测误差进行统计分析和评估,并用于电网调度决策。根据对风电功率不确定性的处理方法不同,将含风电的电力系统调度模型分为确定性模型、模糊模型及不确定性模型。对风电功率不同时间尺度、不同前瞻周期的预测误差进行统计学分析,从而研究不同时间尺度之间调度决策的滚动优化机制,以及不同时间尺度调度决策进行滚动优化时调度与对应时间尺度预测之间相互协调配合的问题。储能、电动汽车等可调度资源能够有效平衡和抑制风电等可再生能源的间歇性和波动性,是实现消纳大规模风电、节能减排、保障电网安全稳定的有效途径。并对以大型火电为主体电源的电网接纳风电的成本效益进行了讨论。
With the stochastic and intermittent characteristics of wind power output,large-scale wind power integration brings a significant challenge to the operation and dispatch of power system.Predicting wind power output is the basic work for accommodating large scale wind power penetration.On that basis,the statistical analysis and evaluation resuhs of prediction error are used for the operation and dispatch of power system.According to different processing methods of the uncertainty of wind power,models of power system dispatch considering wind power integration are categorize into three type,namely, deterministic model,fuzzy model and uncertainty model.Prediction errors of wind power output in different time-scale and different foresight-period are put under statistical analysis, and thus the mechanism of rolling optimization of dispatch decisions in different time-scale is researched and furthermore the coordination of dispatch decisions in different time-scale and its corresponding prediction is studied.Controllable resources, such as stored energy, electric vehicle, can effectively neutralize and stabilize stochastic and intermittent characteristics of wind power output,providing a practical approach for accommodating large-scale wind power integration ,,energy conservation and emission reduction, and for the stability of power grid.The cost- effectiveness of accommodating large scale wind power integration is discussed in the grid where large thermal power plants are the main power supply.
出处
《山东电力技术》
2015年第4期38-42,48,共6页
Shandong Electric Power
关键词
电力系统
经济调度
调度模式
风电并网
滚动调度优化
power system
economic dispatch
dispatching mode
wind power integration
rolling optimization dispatch