摘要
【目的】气候变化背景下中国农业及粮食安全面临严峻挑战,而小麦是中国三大粮食作物之一,对保障中国粮食安全具有重要作用,研究气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区的变化特征,为冬小麦合理布局提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用逐级订正法计算中国冬小麦潜在种植区内各站点冬小麦逐年潜在光温产量,综合考虑高产性和稳产性指标,以1981年为时间节点,将1961—2010年划分为两个时段,在分析1981—2010年(时段Ⅱ)较1961—1980年(时段Ⅰ)潜在光温产量高产性和稳产性变化特征的基础上,综合得到气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区界限的变化及潜在光温适宜种植区分布的变化特征。【结果】与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在光温产量的最高产区和高产区面积增加,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例分别增加了6.33%和7.42%,而次高产区和低产区面积减少,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例减少了10.50%和3.24%。时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在光温产量最稳产区面积下降,占研究区域冬小麦面积比例降低了25.76%,而稳产区、次稳产区和低稳产区面积增加,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例分别增加了12.09%、10.34%和3.31%。中国冬小麦潜在最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和可种植区界限在空间上都发生改变。其中,冬小麦潜在最适宜区界限发生了明显的北移西扩,潜在最适宜区南界由安徽省中部北移至山东省西北部,潜在最适宜区西界由山西省西南部西扩至陕西省西北部;冬小麦潜在适宜区界限向东北方向移动,最大移动距离在四川省东部-陕西省西南部,移动距离达835.63 km。冬小麦各等级潜在光温适宜种植区界限变化引起各区域冬小麦面积相应改变。与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在最适宜区和适宜区冬小麦面积下降,占研究区域冬小麦面积比例分别降低了4.49%�
Objective] In the context of climate change, China needs to address critical challenges relating to the agricultural development and food security. Wheat is one of China＆#39;s three major grain crops, which plays an important role in China’s food security. The variation of potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied, which would provide an important scientific reference for the rational distribution of winter wheat. [Method] In this research, the‘correction step by step’ method was used to calculate the potential light-temperature yield of winter wheat in each year. The year 1981 was taken as a time node and divided the period 1961-2010 into two sub-periods. Combined with the indices of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability, the variation of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability zones were investigated. In summary, the variation of the boundaries and distributions of the potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zones of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied. [Result] Compared with the period 1961-1980, during 1981-2010, the percentage of the very high and high potential yield zones in the study area increased by 6.33%and 7.42%, respectively, but the percentage of moderately high and marginally high potential yield zones decreased by 10.50% and 3.24%, respectively. During 1981 to 2010, the percentage of the very stable potential yield zone in the study area decreased by 25.76%, but the percentage of stable, moderately stable and marginally potential yield zones increased by 12.09%, 10.34% and 3.31%, respectively. The boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward and westward. The southern boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward from the central part of Anhui Province to the northwest portion of Shandong Province, and the western boundary of the very suitable zones extended westward from the southwest part of Shanxi Province to the northwest part of S
出处
《中国农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期1926-1941,共16页
Scientia Agricultura Sinica
基金
国家重点基础发展研究计划("973"计划)(2010CB951502)
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划(2012BAD20B04)
关键词
气候变化
中国
冬小麦
潜在光温适宜种植区
climate change
China
winter wheat
potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone
