摘要
以常住、户籍人口为基础计算人口流动率,基于非农产值及其就业所占比重构建工业化衡量指标,测度2000—2012年我国人口流动、城市化与工业化的变化趋势,并建立面板协整模型对三者之间的长期均衡关系进行估计和检验。结果显示:从纵向看,我国人口流动、城市化与工业化均呈不断上升态势,从横向看,区域差异非常明显;流动人口与城市化、城市化与工业化之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,流动人口增加可提高城市化水平,城市化水平的提高又对工业化有着显著正向作用;人口流动仅仅是提高了"城市化率"这一指标,真正的"人的城市化"水平有待提高;各地区的城市化与工业化偏差在一定程度上解释了城市化对工业化的影响存在区域差异这一现象。
On the basis of the calculation of flow rate of population based on a permanent domicile population and the construction of industrialization indicators based on non-agricultural production value and employment proportion,we make a research on the change trend in China＇s floating population,urbanization and industrialization from 2000 to 2012 and establish a panel integration model to estimate and test the long-term equilibrium relationship among the three. The results show that：from the vertical perspective,there exists a rising trend in China＇s floating population,urbanization and industrialization; from the lateral view,there exists a clear regional difference; there is a long-run integration relationship between floating population and urbanization,between urbanization and industrialization,the increase of floating population can improve the level of urbanization,which has a significant and positive effect on industrialization. Population mobility can only improve the index of urbanization rate,and the real＂urbanization＂level needs to be improved; the deviation of urbanization and industrialization in different areas,to a certain extent,explains the fact that there exists a regional difference as far as the effect of urbanization on industrialization is concerned.
出处
《南京审计学院学报》
2015年第2期55-62,共8页
journal of nanjing audit university
关键词
人口流动
城市化率
区域经济
隐形福利
户籍制度
人的城市化
新型城镇化
产业集群
区域竞争力
population flow
rate of urbanization
regional economy
invisible welfare
household registration system
urbanization
new urbanization
industrial cluster
regional competitiveness
