摘要
基于石油消费影响因素定性分析,将碳排放量和城市人口密度作为低碳环境和城市化水平对石油消费的影响因素,构建了低碳经济背景下石油消费与影响因素之间的地区面板数据模型。定量分析了人均GDP、产业结构、城市人口密度、能源利用效率、碳排放量对石油消费的影响效应。由分析结果得出,无论是从长期均衡效应还是短期波动效应来说,产业结构、城市人口密度、碳排放量对石油消费起正相关作用,而人均GDP、能源效率对石油消费起负相关作用。其中,人均GDP、城市人口密度、碳排放量的短期效应大,而产业结构、能源效率的长期效应大。针对上述结果,提出了东部地区短期内应加强第三产业发展、实施石油储备、碳减排等措施,而长期应制定完善产业结构和提高能源效率的宏观政策。
On the basis of the qualitative analysis of petroleum consumption factors and with carbon emission and urban population density adopted as a level of low-carbon economy and urbanization,a regional panel data model of oil consumption and influencing factors in low-carbon economic background was constructed.The effects of per capita GDP,industrial structures,urban population density,energy efficiency and carbon emissions on oil consumption were quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that either from the long-term equilibrium effects or from the short-term fluctuating effects,industrial structures,urban population density and carbon emissions had a positive effect on oil consumption while per capita GDP and energy efficiency had a negative effect on oil consumption.In addition,the short-term effects of per capita GDP,urban population density and carbon emissions were significant and the long-term effects of industrial structure and energy efficiency were strong.Therefore,in the short-term tertiary industry development,oil reserve implementation,carbon emission reduction and other measures should strengthened in the eastern regions,but in the long term,industrial structure and energy efficiency should be improved.
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2015年第2期108-112,共5页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
关键词
低碳经济
石油消费
影响因素
Low-carbon economy
Iil consumption
Influencing factor
