摘要
ET0是计算作物需水量、进行农田灌溉管理及区域水资源优化配置的重要依据。以新疆焉耆盆地绿洲区为例,将ANFIS应用于逐日ET0预测中。根据研究区各气象要素的相关分析结果,选择系统输入变量为日最高气温和日均风速;利用不同水文年共1462组数据对系统进行训练,建立ET0预测模型。利用该模型对研究区2011年的365组数据进行预测效果检验,并与PM模型计算值为标准进行对比,结果表明:ANFIS系统预测平均相对误差绝对值为6.5%;通过t检验,预测值和标准值相差不大,在0.01的置信度下,无显著差异;回归分析表明,预测值和标准值相关系数为0.9911,且数据均匀分布在直线y=x附近,模型具有较高的精度和稳定性。研究结果为干旱区灌区农田灌溉管理及水资源配置提供了一定参考。
Reference crop evapotranspiration is important for crop water requirements calculation,irrigation management and optimal allocation of regional water resources. In this research Yanqi basin was taken as an example,ANFIS was applied in the prediction of daily ET0. According to the results of correlation analysis of various meteorological elements in study area,the maximum daily temperature and daily average wind speed were selected as the input variables of the system; the system was trained using 1462 sets data in different hydrological years to establish the ET0 prediction system. 365 sets data of 2011 in study area were used to the model to predict and test,and calculation values were compared with standard value of PM. The results show that the predictive average relative error of system was 6. 5%. t test showed that difference between predictive value and standard value was not quite large,at the 0. 01 confidence level,no significant difference; regression analysis showed that the correlation coefficient of predicted value and standard value was 0. 9911,and the data were distributed in a straight line near y = x,it meant the model had high precision and good stability. Study results can provide a reference for the irrigation management and water resources allocation.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期176-180,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
新疆水文学及水资源重点学科(XJSWSZYZDXK20101202)资助
