摘要
铜矿是重要的战略性矿产资源,而中国资源匮乏,主要依赖进口.近年来,中国铜矿需求量逐年递增.分析我国铜矿进口贸易的影响因素,对保障我国进口铜矿资源的稳定供给具有重要的现实意义.基于1997—2011年中国铜矿进口额的面板数据,采用Eviews 6.0软件,分析检验了中国铜矿进口额与GDP、铜矿储量、世界铜矿产量以及美元指数等变量之间的协整与格兰杰(Granger)因果关系.研究表明:1)中国铜矿进口额与我国GDP、我国铜矿储量、世界铜矿产量以及美元指数之间存在长期的均衡关系;2)中国GDP与世界铜矿产量是我国铜矿进口额变动的格兰杰原因.基于以上研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议.
Copper is one of the important strategic mineral resources. However, China is lack of copper resource, and mainly relies on imports. In recent years, China＇s demand for copper is gradually increasing. It is of an important practical significance to conduct an analysis of the influencing factors for copper trade in China. in recent years. Because of the limited copper reserves, China mainly relies on importing copper minerals from foreign countries to fill the shortage. In order to guarantee the steady supply of copper resources, Based on the panel data of China＇s copper imports in 1997-2011, by adopting the Eviews 6.0 software, this paper analyzed and tested the cointegrated and Granger causal relationships between the dependent variable - China＇s copper import value and the independent variables of China＇s GDP, China＇s copper reserves, World copper reserves, and the US dollar index. The results indicate that： （1） The long-term equilibrium relationship does exist between China＇s copper import values and China＇s GDP, China＇s copper reserves, World copper reserves, and the US dollar index; （2） China＇s GDP and the World＇s copper reserves are the Granger reasons for the changes of China＇s copper imports. Based on the above conclusions, this paper put forward policy recommendations accordingly.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第3期39-47,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:"经济全球化背景下中国矿资源战略研究"(12JZD034)
中国地质大学(武汉)数字化商务与智能管理研究中心开放基金(2014CUG008)
