摘要
文章基于农村金融效率视角,将农村金融引入生产函数,实证了1982-2009年中国农业信贷和保险效率与农产品出口、进口和进出口依存度的关系。研究显示:在长期关系上,农业信贷效率对农产品出口、进口以及进出口依存度均具正向影响,而农业保险效率则具有负向影响。在短期关系上:农业信贷效率对农产品出口和进出口的影响不明显;农业保险效率则对农产品出口和进出口存在着一定的促进作用;而农业信贷和保险效率与农产进口依存度的关系难以确定。在因果关系上,农业信贷效率与农产品出口依存度具有互为因果的长期正向关系,与农产品进口只有单项因果的长期正向关系;农业保险效率与农产品进口依存度存在互为因果的长期负向关系和短期正向关系;并且其因果关系均具一定的滞后期特征。文章对结果逐一解释其原因后,提出了政策建议。
On the perspective of rural financial efficiency,this paper demonstrates the relationship among the agricultural loans,the insurances efficiency,the import and export of agricultural products and the import-export dependence over the period of 1982-2009 by introducing the rural finance into the production function.The results show that the efficiency of agricultural loans has positive effects on the export and import of agricultural products as well as the import-export dependence in the long run;and the efficiency of agricultural insurances has negative effects on them.In the short run,the efficiency of agricultural loans shows no obvious effects on the export and the import-export of agricultural products,however the efficiency of agricultural insurances shows positive effects on the export and the import-export of agricultural products.There remains uncertainty in the relationship between the import-export dependence and the efficiency of agricultural loans and agricultural insurances.From the viewpoint of causality,the results show that long-term positive two-way causality lies between the efficiency of agricultural loans and the import-export dependence,and long-term positive unidirectional causality lies between the efficiency of agricultural loans and the import of agricultural products;long-term negative two-way causality and short-term positive causality are both found in the efficiency of agricultural insurances and the import-export dependence;all the causalities above show certain characteristics of lagphase.The policy suggestions are proposed based on analyzing the results of the study.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第10期36-45,共10页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社科基金项目(05BJY102)
教育部人文社科项目(06JA790100)
科技部软科学项目(2007GXS3D106)
中国社科院重点项目"现代高端服务业与区域经济发展关系研究"
宁波市与中国社科院战略合作项目"现代高端服务业发展研究中心"联合资助
关键词
农村金融效率
农产品对外贸易
协整检验
误差修正模型
格兰杰因果分析
rural financial efficiency
foreign trade of agricultural products
co-integration test
vector error correction model
granger causality test
