摘要
目的建立肇庆市其它感染性腹泻监测预警体系,进行早期预警监测。方法利用2010-2012年肇庆市其它感染性腹泻监测数据,使用控制图法、历史限值法和指数加权移动平均法,对2013年其它感染性腹泻监测数据进行拟合,分析预警的效果。结果 2013年其它感染性腹泻疫情控制图法显示有两个流行时期,分别为第2-5周、第44-52周;历史限值法显示有两个时期高于历史同期水平,分别为第4-16周、第50-52周;指数加权移动平均法显示第3-4周以及第43-52周疫情有明显增加。结论综合运用控制图法、历史限值法和指数加权移动平均法三种预警方法能够比较准确、直观、可靠地对肇庆市其它感染性腹泻疫情流行情况进行早期预警。
Objective To build an early warning system based on the infectious diarrhea surveillance data of Zhaoqing city.Methods According to the infectious diarrhea surveillance data of Zhaoqing from 2010 to 2012, the surveillance data of2013 were fitted into models for early warning of infectious diarrhea with three methods including control chart method（CCM）, historical limit method（HLM） and exponentially weighted moving average method（EWMA）. Results The control chart method analysis showed that infectious diarrhea had two epidemic periods, 2^nd-5^th week and 44^th-52^th week in 2013;historical limit method analysis showed that the two periods were at 4^th-16^th week and 50^th-52^th week; exponentially weighted moving average method analysis showed that significant increase of infectious diarrhea incidence occurred at 3^rd-4^th week and 43^rd-52^nd week 3 compared with forecast values based on the recent trend. Conclusion It can more accurate, intuitive and reliable to give early warning for the epidemic of infectious diarrhea by using the control chart method, historical limit method and exponentially weighted moving average method.
出处
《热带医学杂志》
CAS
2015年第1期119-121,共3页
Journal of Tropical Medicine
关键词
其它感染性腹泻
预警
控制图法
历史限值法
other infectious diarrhea
early warning
control chart method
historical limit method
