摘要
本文使用分产业增长核算法研究了中国资本与劳动力的产业间配置的增长效应。本文发现,目前对投资的统计是按投资主体而非使用主体来进行行业归类.直接使用这些数据测算各行业资本存量会严重高估第三产业的资本存量,得到资本配置"结构负利"和资本配置严重违背效率原则等失真结论。通过剔除房地产业,本文发现20世纪90年代以后,产业间资本配置基本符合效率原则,资本配置结构效应不明显。本文的测算还发现,改革开放以来,劳动力产业间配置所带来的增长效应平均为0.63个百分点,与剩余经济增长率和剩余TFP明显正相关且有推动作用,并呈现出十年左右的"改革周期"。与其他37个国家和地区的劳动力配置结构效应的比较研究表明,截至2017年,中国劳动力配置结构效应仍将处于较高阶段;2017—2023年,结构效应将明显下降,结构性减速压力将迅速增强;2030年以后,劳动力配置结构效应将于低位徘徊,此时经济可能进入低速增长阶段。该发现有助于更好地判断未来经济增长趋势。
This paper promotes the research on the structural impacts from capital and labor allocation in China by using the multi-sector model of growth accounting. It confirms that there are serious deficiencies in the official statistical method for industrial investments, which distort calculations of industrial capital stock and the influence of capital allocation. By excluding the real estate industry, the result shows a dramatic improvement of capital allocation since the middle of 1990s but a serious misallocation of capital that resulted from the 4 trillion stimulus plan. The study about the effect of labor allocation （SGL） shows an average impact of 0.63 percentage points on growth, and it is related positively with both economic growth and TFP, and reveals ten-year political cycles originating from cyclic reforms. The results of international comparison indicate that there are three periods for SGLs, in which SGLs are high, medium and low respectively. The authors predict that China＇ SGL will remain in the high period until 2017, and the period of 2017--2023 is the dramatic transition stage leading to the medium SGL and that China＇s economy will suffer significant pressures arising from the structural slowdown. The low period will emerge after 2030, then no longer will SGL be conspicuous. These findings will improve the estimations of growth trend of China＇s economy and contribute to subsequent research.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期5-17,共13页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"加快经济结构调整与促进经济自主协调发展研究"(批准号12&ZD084)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国城市化模式
演进机制和可持续发展研究"(批准号12AJL009)
关键词
结构效应
要素配置
结构性减速
资本存量
structural effects
factor allocation
structural reduction of growth
capital stock
