摘要
新型运输方式与第三产业增长关系的研究有利于相关基础设施建设科学统筹、合理规划,并带动区域经济发展。以航空运输为代表,选取甘肃省航空周转量与第三产业1978—2012年数据进行研究。通过E-G两步法、分布滞后模型和误差修正模型的构建,依次对二者之间的长期协整关系、短期贡献弹性进行测算。在此基础上,通过构建VAR(2)模型,分析得出目前甘肃省现代化运输方式发展严重滞后的结论,提出航空运输、高速铁路等新型运输方式与第三产业良性互动发展策略。
Research on the relationship between new modes of transport and the growth of tertiary industry will promote the planning of infrastructure construction. Take Gansu, China as an example, based on the data from 1978 to 2012, this paper gets the results about long-term co-integration relationship and short-term contribution elasticity by E-G method, establishing distributed lag model and error correction model. Afterwards, a conclusion that modern modes of transport in Gansu develops inadequately is proposed by building VAR （2） model. Finally, the development strategy about airline, high speed railway and tertiary industry in Gansu is presented.
出处
《铁道经济研究》
2014年第6期40-45,共6页
Railway Economics Research
基金
甘肃省社科规划重点项目:"甘肃省建设现代化基础设施体系对策研究"(12ZD10
2012-2013)
关键词
航空旅客周转量
第三产业
协整
误差修正模型
向量自回归模型
airline passenger transport
tertiary industry
co-integration
error correction model
vector auto regression model
