摘要
提振内需已成为当前中国经济转型的重要内容。本文从回迁意愿和二元结构的新视角研究流动人口家庭储蓄行为,为理解中国高储蓄提供了新的经验证据。研究首先构建了二元结构下回迁概率与流动人口家庭储蓄的理论模型。其次利用2012年北上广流动人口监测数据进行OLS和工具变量回归,验证了回迁意愿越强,流动人口家庭储蓄率越高,结论通过稳健性检验;研究也从回迁后面临的不确定性这一角度,对回迁意愿影响流动人口家庭储蓄率的影响机制进行了分析。另外,农业户籍、非正规就业或蓝领阶层流动人口家庭也存在显著的储蓄"过高扭曲",说明了二元结构对消费的严重抑制。
Boosting domestic demand has become an important part of China＇s current economic transition. This paper investigates temporary migrants＇ savings behaviors from new perspective of return-migration willingness and the dual structure, and provides new empirical evidences for China＇s high savings rate. First, a theory model is constructed. Second, with evidence from Dynamic Monitoring Data of Temporary Migrants, this paper is conducted with empirical studies. The results reveal that the more the return-migration willingness is, the higher the savings rates will be, and the reasons are investigated from the perspective of uncertainty. Additionally, migrant households with agricultural Hukou, informal employment or blue-collar occupation, show obviously ＂excessively distorted＂ savings, which indicates that the dual structure inhibits household expenditures.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期23-38,共16页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
复旦大学985工程三期项目"户籍制度改革与中国城市化发展道路研究"(项目编号:2011RWSKQN010)的部分研究成果
关键词
流动人口储蓄
回迁意愿
二元结构
Savings of temporary migrants, Willingness of return-migration, Dual economic structure
