摘要
结合我国当前电网系统供用电安全的现状和国内外相关文献,构建了供用电安全风险层次结构指标体系。针对在多因素指标的综合评价问题上,定性指标量化困难、实际指标往往并不相互独立和风险评估权重难以客观评定等特点,提出了基于离差最大化-Choquet模糊积分的新的供用电安全风险评估算法,讨论该算法的计算步骤,并通过案例验证该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。结果表明,该方法适合电网供用电安全风险评估,并且体现了风险评估语言的客观性以及评估权重主观性和客观性的结合,可适用于多种综合评价问题。
Combining status quo of present power supply and consumption safety of power grid system in our country and rel-evant documents at home and abroad,this paper introduces construction of power supply and consumption safety risk hierar-chical structure index system. Aiming at comprehensive evaluation problems of multiple factor index such as difficult quanti-tative index quantization,co-independent practical index and subjective assessment on risk evaluation weight,a new evalua-tion algorithm for power supply and consumption safety risk based on maximum deviation-Choquet fuzzy integral was pro-posed. Calculation steps of this algorithm were discussed and its feasibility,effectiveness and practicability was verified by means of practical examples. Results indicated that this method was suitable for evaluation on power supply and consumption safety risk of the power grid. In addition,objectivity of risk evaluation language and combination of subjectivity and objec-tivity of evaluation weight was reflected as well which might apply to various comprehensive evaluation problems.
出处
《广东电力》
2014年第12期5-10,41,共7页
Guangdong Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271084)
国家电网科技项目(521820140017)
关键词
供用电风险
风险评估
模糊积分
离差最大化
power supply and consumption safety risk
risk evaluation
fuzzy integral
maximum deviation
