摘要
在没有轮次限制的轮盘赌任务中考察了先前一轮及多轮的决策结果对后续决策风险偏好的影响模式,结果表明:(1)无论盈亏,前一轮获益或损失的程度越大后一轮的风险偏好越大;(2)先前获益后,接下来的下注投入的金额小于先前一轮的获益金额,先前损失后,接下来的下注的潜在获益金额大于先前一轮的损失金额。实验结果定量地验证和拓展了私房钱效应(house money effect)和保本效应(break even effect),在此基础上归纳出了动态重复决策中"决策前景与先前结果合并后规避损失"的决策标准,即当决策情景具有重复性且可以自由制定决策方案时,决策的标准是使得先前一次的获益(或损失)与下一次决策的潜在损失(或获益)合并后可以规避损失。实验结果还表明决策者仅合并最近一次的先前结果而不会合并先前连续获益或损失的结果。
Thaler and Johnson （1990） proposed the“house money effect”（risk taking increases after a win） and“break even effect”（risk taking increases after a loss when there’s a chance to break even） to describe people’s behavior in dynamic decision making. Obviously these phenomena exceeded the explanation of prospect theory. However, in the study by Thaler and Johnson （1990）, the decision frame was manipulated in the paradigm of two-stage gamble choice, so that the effects of prior outcomes on the risk preference in dynamic repeated decision making scenarios remain a problem. In the present study, based on the paradigm of Demaree （2012）, we would like to reaffirm the theoretical expectations of “house money effect” and “break even effect”and analyze the decision pattern in the roulette game scenario quantitatively. In order to constitute a dynamic repeated decision scenario with favorable ecological validity, a simulated roulette game was developed. Participants were asked to choose between options which stood for a range of numbers on the roulette （e.g., from 18 to 36） and decide the amount of wager to put on. After the roulette rolling, a specific number was given. If the number fell in the range of the option, the corresponding amount of“money”（the token in the game） would be added to the bankroll of the participant, otherwise the amount of money will be considered to be lost. As long as the bankroll had not reached zero, the participant was free to decide whether to continue the game or stop the game to cash the bankroll. The amount of bankroll, wager and the chosen option in every trial was logged for the analyses of the prior outcome and risk preference. The results showed that the participant’s risk preference increased with the absolute value of preceding outcome, no matter it was a gain or a loss. Moreover, after a preceding win, the wager devoted into next trial was smaller than the profit of the last trial, which was consistent with the “house money effect
出处
《心理学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第12期1860-1870,共11页
Acta Psychologica Sinica
关键词
动态决策
私房钱效应
保本效应
先前结果
风险偏好
dynamic decision-making
house money effect
break even effect
prior outcome
risk preference
