摘要
目的查找适用于研究伤寒发病率和气象因素之间关系的科学方法,探讨邯郸市伤寒的气象流行病学特征。方法收集1991—2010年邯郸市伤寒疫情资料、气象资料和人口资料,对数据进行统计分析。结果①气象参数的共线性诊断结果显示,本组气象因子数据容差最小为0.014,方差膨胀因子最大达73.264。②采用Spearman相关分析结果显示,伤寒月发病率与月平均气温、月极端最低气温、月极端最高气温、月小型蒸发量、月总降雨量、月日照时数、月平均相对湿度呈正相关,与月平均气压呈负相关(P<0.05或<0.01)。其中月平均气温与伤寒月发病率之间的相关系数最大(r_s=0.592)。③气象参数的KMO和Bartlett球形检验结果显示,气象参数非常适合做因子分析。结论邯郸市10个气象参数之间存在严重的多重共线性。月平均气温是影响伤寒发病的主要气象因素。非自然水因因子是影响伤寒发病的主因子。
Objective To look for the scientific method which could apply to research the relationships between typhoid fever incidence and meteorological factors,and to discuss the meteorological epidemiology characteristics of typhoid fever.Methods The data of typhoid fever, meteorological parameters and population in 1991-2010 in Handan were collected and analyzed. Results ①Collinearity diagnosis of meteorological parameters showed that the minimal tolerance was 0.014 and the maximal variance inflation factor was 73.264.②Monthly incidence of typhoid fever had significant positive correlation with monthly mean temperature,monthly extreme minimum temperature,monthly extreme maximum temperature,monthly small evaporation, monthly total precipitation,monthly sunshine hours and monthly average relative humidity,and significant negative correlation with monthly average air pressure by using Spearman correlation analysis （P〈0.05 or 〈0.01 ）.The correlation coefficient of typhoid fever and monthly mean temperature was the biggest（rs=0.592）.③The result of KMO and Bartlett showed that test of meteorological parameters was very suitable for factor analysis.Conclusion The problem of multicollinearity in 10 meteorological parameters was very serious.Monthly mean temperature was the main meteorological factor influencing typhoid fever incidence.The non natural water factor was the main factor affecting typhoid fever incidence.
出处
《河北医科大学学报》
CAS
2014年第10期1163-1165,共3页
Journal of Hebei Medical University
关键词
伤寒
气象学
医学
流行病学
因子分析
typhoid fever
medical,meteorology
epidemiology
factor analysis
