摘要
本文以啤酒游戏为背景,构建了运用部分析因设计对牛鞭效应成因进行量化的仿真模型。文章在仿真模型设计中,将牛鞭效应成因总结为9个变量:需求预测、在途物资预测、批量订货、运输延迟、信息延迟、购买延迟、生产延迟、生产能力、层级结构。在啤酒游戏中,仿真结果显示,购买延迟、层级机构、在途物资修正和需求预测修正具有明显的主导性,优化供应链结构、实现企业间信息的共享将极大地的弱化牛鞭效应的影响,研究结果为供应链牛鞭效应的弱化研究指引了方向。
Simulation models for the beer game are developed to measures the relative contribution of each causes of the bullwhip ef -fect by fractional factorial design . In the simulation model , the causes of the bullwhip effect are summarized as nine variables ： demand forecast ,rationing and shortage gaming , order batching , material delays , information delays , purchasing delays , production delays , capacity limit and level of echelons .Among these factors , purchasing delays , level of echelons , rationing and shortage gaming are the three most significant ones . In order to mitigate the bullwhip effect , sharing actual demand information and coordinating production and distribution activities are necessary .The research results are contributed to guide the direction of how to mitigate the bullwhip effect .
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2014年第11期21-28,共8页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
2012青年骨干教师出国研修项目[留金发(2012)3050]
秦皇岛市科学技术研究与发展计划(项目编号:201301B042)
关键词
牛鞭效应
啤酒游戏
仿真
部分析因设计
witness
bullwhip effect
beer game
witness
fractional factorial design
