摘要
如何评估大停电的综合损失是政府和电网企业重点关注的问题。在社会公共安全模型的基础上,建立了大停电社会综合评估指标体系及其评估模型,并分别从社会人员伤亡损失、财产损失及延误损失等方面进行了量化评估。对模型参数进行了理论分析和取值优化。结合我国电网及国家发展水平情况,以某区域为例,计算分析了大停电综合损失结果,并与国内外大停电损失统计结果相对比,验证了该评估模型的正确性和有效性。
How to evaluate comprehensive loss caused by blackout is the problem both government and grid enterprises pay special attention to.Based on social public security model,a social comprehensive evaluation indicator system and corresponding evaluation model for the impact caused by blackout are established,and the quantitative evaluation is performed in the aspects of social personnel casualties,property loss and loss due to delay in service restoration.Theoretical analysis on the parameter of the established model and the optimization of the assigned values for the model parameters are carried out.Combining with actual situation of power grids in China and the national development level,taking a certain region for example the results of comprehensive losses caused by the blackout are calculated and analyzed,and the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed evaluation model are validated by comparing the obtained results with statistical results of blackout-caused losses home and abroad.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第11期2964-2971,共8页
Power System Technology
关键词
社会公共安全
大停电事故
社会损失
参数选取
social public security
blackout accident
social loss
parameter selection
