摘要
基于黄河源区玛多县1953-2012年的日平均气温和降水资料,利用一元线性趋势分析、累积距平、Mann-Kendall趋势检验及Morlet复小波分析法,对黄河源区气温和降水特征与突变规律进行了分析。结果表明：60年来黄河源区玛多县暖湿化特征明显。年均气温倾向率为0.28℃·10a-1,各季气温倾向率分别为：春（0.148℃·10a^-1）,夏（0.212℃·10a^-1）,秋（0.279℃·10a^-1）,冬（0.501℃·10a^-1）,均通过了α=0.01的显著性检验。年降水量倾向率为10.2mm·10a^-1,以春（3.883mm·10a^-1）、夏（4.506mm·10a^-1）降水量增加最大,年、春季降水量变化通过了α=0.05的显著性检验。1989年开始黄河源区气候转暖,1998年发生气候变暖的突变,2001年开始气温显著升高。年降水量从1988年增多,2004年发生降水量增多突变,2010年开始降水量显著增多。小波分析表明,年均气温存在25a、14a、11a的年代际变化和6a的年际变化,以12a为其变化第一主周期;年降水量存在45a、30a、12a的年代际变化和5a的年际变化,以30a为其变化第一主周期。
Based on daily average air temperature and daily precipitation data from 1953 to 2012 in the Madoi station,and preliminary dispose with Pivot table in Microsoft Excel,the patterns and characteristics of climate changes in the sources areas of the Yellow River were studied with the methods of the linear regression method,cumulative anomaly method,Mann- Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. The linear regression method was used to study the variation trends of the mean annual air temperature（ MAAT） and annual precipitation on annual and decadal scales. The cumulative anomaly method and Mann- Kendall test were used to test trends and abrupt jumps of the MAAT and annual precipitation. The Morlet wavelet analysis was used to detect the change interval of the MAAT and precipitation. The results demonstrated that the climate in the Madoi station showed a significant warming trend,the MAAT varied between- 2. 07 and- 5. 50 and averaged at- 3. 67℃,the annual precipitation varied between 184. 0 mm and 485. 6 mm and averaged at 321. 5 mm,and the climate trends were 0. 28℃ ·10a^- 1and 10. 2mm·10a^- 1,respectively. The climate trends were 0.148℃·10a- 1,0.212℃ ·10a^- 1,0.279℃·10a^- 1,0.501℃·10a^- 1for the spring,summer,autumn and winter respectively.The climate were warmer since 1989,the abrupt change in the MAAT occurred in 1998,and the significant increasing of the MAAT started from 2010. Trends of precipitation in the spring and summer were 3. 883mm·10a- 1and 4. 506mm ·10a- 1,respectively,and contributed greatly to the annual precipitation. The climate change interval analysis revealed that the MAAT fluctuated significantly with the intervals of 25,14,11 and 6years,and the annual precipitation fluctuated with the intervals of 45,30,12 and 5 years,respectively. The primary intervals for the MAAT and annual precipitation were 12 and 30 years,respectively.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第11期185-192,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41301068)
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951402)
中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所青年人才基金项目(Y252J41001)
冻土工程国家重点实验室项目青年自主课题(SKLFSE-ZQ-18)联合资助
关键词
黄河源区
气候变化
小波分析
趋势检验
the sources areas of the Yellow River
climate changes
wavelet analysis
trend test
