摘要
为研究航空旅客出行方式选择行为,在航空港集疏运系统需求描述的基础上,介绍并运用巢式Logit模型原理,以广州白云国际机场为实例,建立适用于白云机场集疏运系统的方式选择模型(NL模型),分析确定各相关影响因素项的影响机理,运用最大似然估计法对虚拟选择枝的共性和相异部分的参数进行修正和标定,从而获取各种集疏运方式的选择概率。结合调查选取的20份样本数据,运用模型编程计算得出私人小汽车、出租车、机场巴士、城际巴士和城市轨道共5种集疏运方式的方式选择概率分布结果,结果显示私人小汽车和出租车二者占比大于45%,机场巴士和城际巴士占比约40%,城市轨道仅占比15%。因此,为大力发展城市的公共交通,需要对白云机场提出具有参考性集疏运系统改进方案,为今后航空港集疏运系统的发展和航空旅客交通方式选择行为研究提供一定的借鉴。
This paper studies the modal split behavior of the aviation passengers based on the description of the airport collecting and distributing system requirements.The paper introduces and uses the principle of the nested Logit model by setting the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as an example.The modal split model is established and applied to the Baiyun Airport Collecting and Distributing System（NL model）.The model analyzes and determines the mechanism of the influence factors.It uses the maximum likelihood estimation to amend and demarcate the parameter of the virtual selection branch in similarity and diversity so as to acquire the selective probability.Furthermore,the paper uses 20 sets of sample data for analysis.The probabilistic results of several kinds of transportation such as the personal car,taxi,airport bus,city bus and subway are calculated.The results show that the private car and taxi account for more than 45%,the airport bus and city bus for about 40%,and subway only for 15%.Therefore,in order to develop the urban public transportation,it is necessary to improve the Baiyun Airport Collecting and Distributing System,which provides some references for the development of the airport collecting and distributing system by studying aviation passenger behaviors with the modal split.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2014年第4期124-130,共7页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:61174188)资助
