摘要
当前管道风险评价普遍使用定性或半定量方法,该方法在实际应用中存在评价缺少依据、过度依靠经验等问题。利用归纳分析的方法对当前管道风险评价工作存在的不足进行分析,结果表明:管道定性、半定量风险评价技术应用中存在不同评价方法可比性差,评价与检测的关系不清晰,评价结果有时无法全面反映主要风险,评价模型的适用性不能完全满足需要,管道历史失效数据的利用率较低等问题,因而提出了开展管道风险的科学研究,建立管道失效与腐蚀数据库,开展定量风险评价,根据实际情况制定相应风险评价体系等对策。
Qualitative or semi-quantitative method is commonly used in pipeline risk assessment currently. However, because of multiple pipeline, diversified evaluation methods, less standards/specifications, and inadequate data, some problems often exist in such evaluation, including absence of evidences and excessive dependence on experience. In this paper, the deficiencies in current pipeline risk assessment are stated by inductive analysis method. The analysis results show that several problems exist in risk assessment by qualitative or semi-quantitative method. For instance, the evaluation methods are less comparable; the relationship between evaluation and detection is unclear; evaluation results sometimes can＇t comprehensively reflect key risks; the evaluation model is not fully applicable; historical data of pipe failures are inefficiently used. Against these problems, some countermeasures are proposed, such as scientific research on pipeline risks, establishment of pipeline failure and corrosion database, quantitative risk assessment, and formulation of appropriate risk assessment system according to actual situations.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
2014年第9期963-966,共4页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南油气田分公司科学研究项目"含硫集输天然气管道定量风险评价技术研究"
20110307-02
关键词
管道
风险评价
问题
对策
pipeline
risk assessment
problems
countermeasures
