摘要
为了评估同化ATOVS卫星微波资料在台风数值预报中的影响,利用中尺度模式WRF和三维变分同化系统WRFDA,采用国家卫星气象中心接收处理的卫星微波温度计AMSU-A辐射率L1c数据集,针对在2008年台风季中影响我国大陆的8个台风典型,开展批量卫星资料同化和数值预报试验。对同化效果的检验和对同化前、后西太平洋副热带高压的分析表明:AMSU-A资料对台风预报有改进作用,在44%的48 h预报样本中同化后路径有改善;同化微波资料后,副热带高压的改变直接影响台风路径。
The impact of radiance assimilation on regional typhoon numerical forecast is evaluated in this paper.The WRF 3DVar is used with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit radiance Llc data,which is received and arranged again by National Satellite Meteorology Center,in a batch of assimilation and forecasting experiments of 8 typical typhoon cases affecting the Chinese mainland in 2008.The assimilation effects are verified sequentially; 44％ of the 48-hour forecasting samples after assimilation have positive effect on the track forecast.The changes of the West Pacific subtropical high lead to the changes of typhoon tracks,as in typhoon 0807 in which the West Pacific subtropical high was moving westward after assimilation,which increased the track error.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期700-706,共7页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201006003
200906009
200906006
200806003
200706009
200706015)
国家高技术研究发展计划(2012AA120903)
国际科技交流与合作专项(2010DFA21140)共同资助
关键词
数值天气预报
区域数值预报模式
台风
三维变分
直接同化
微波辐射资料
卫星
西太平洋副热带高压
numerical weather prediction
regional numerical forecasting model
typhoon, 3Dvar
direct assimilation
microwave radiance
satellite
West Pacific subtropical high
