摘要
为有效降低危险废弃物运输给沿途居民带来的风险,按照风险评价步骤,对时变网络下的居民风险进行分析。基于危险物质的历史事故统计数据,得到可能发生的运输事故率。引入危险物质影响因子对运输事故率进行修正。结合交通流中的速度-密度模型,求解各路段上的运输时间。根据运输事故率及事故后果,建立时变条件下基于传统风险度量的居民风险评估模型。结果表明:不同出发时段的居民风险不同,结合运输网络的动态性,选择合理的出发时间,可有效降低运输过程的风险,从而实现安全运输。
To reduce hazardous waste transportation caused risk to population along line, the risk is analyzed under the condition of time-varying network according to risk assessment steps. Accident rate per unit time is got by studying historical statistical accident data, which is modified by introduction of factors of hazardous material. Transportation time is calculated according to speed-density model for traffic flow. Finally a model is built for assessing risk on basis of data on transportation accident rate and consequence. Result shows that risk is a function of departure time, choosing proper departure time can reduce the risk effectively.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第8期79-84,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金资助(13CGL127)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2682014CX101)
四川省软科学计划项目(2013ZR0041)
关键词
危险废弃物
居民风险
运输事故率
影响因子
时变条件
hazardous waste
population risk
transportation accident probability
impact factors
time varies
