摘要
基于我国1991-2010年的统计数据,运用因子分析、协整检验和VAR模型研究科技创新成果与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,GDP和科技创新成果之间存在协整,具有长期均衡关系;格兰杰因果关系检验表明,GDP与科技创新成果之间存在双向因果关系,即GDP和科技创新成果互为因果;VAR脉冲响应和VAR方差分解表明,GDP增长率和科技创新成果增长率之间存在敏感的动态关系,据此提出建议。
Innovation achievements of science and technology can be translated into practical productivity,which can pro-mote economic growth and economic structure transition. Based on statistical data in years of 1991 -2010 in China,the au-thor researches the dynamic relationship between innovation achievements of science and technology and economic growth by using factor analysis,co-integration test and the VAR model. The results show that the co-integration exists between the GDP and innovation achievements of science and technology and there is long term equilibrium relationship between them;Grainger Granger causality tests show that GDP and innovation achievements of science and technology have bi-directional causality relationship,that is,GDP causes the changes of innovation achievements of science and technology,and GDP variation is also caused by innovation achievements of science and technology. VAR impulse response and variance decom-position show that there is a sensitive dynamic relation between GDP growth rate and that of innovation achievements of sci-ence and technology. Some proposals are put forward in the end.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第17期5-12,共8页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
辽宁省经济社会发展课题"‘辽宁精神’与辽宁文化大发展大繁荣研究"(2013lslktzixxjc-03)
大连市社会科学院一般课题"关于创新大连文化管理体制对策研究"(2012dlskxclh024)
关键词
科技创新成果
经济增长
协整分析
格兰杰因果关系检验
VAR脉冲响应
innovation achievements of science and technology
GDP
factor analysis
co -integration test
Grainger Granger causality test
VAR impulse response
