摘要
过去15年中,很多国家都经历了房地产价格大幅波动的周期,且同期伴随着国际资本流动的剧烈波动。基于1999年1季度至2013年3季度数据进行的回归分析,结果显示实际信贷增长率对实际房价增长率起重要影响,解释了34%的房价增长;而国际资本流动指标解释变量的加入,仅使回归方程的调整R2系数提高了4个百分点。但在2003年1季度至2013年3季度的子样本中,实际信贷增长率仅解释了27%的房价增长;而国际资本流动指标解释变量的加入,却使回归方程的调整R2系数提高了10个百分点。至此可知,美国国家经济研究局质疑资本管制政策作为反周期宏观审慎政策工具合理性的论调是片面的,至少不适用于中国。在我国放开资本项目管制的过程中,必须考虑资本外流可能导致房产价格泡沫破灭并进而引发金融危机的可能性,尤其应该慎重对待其他投资资本账户的开放。资本管制政策作为宏观审慎政策工具的合理性对于中国这样一个新兴市场经济的大国是毋庸置疑的。
During the past fifteen years, many countries have experienced dramatic fluctuation cycles in real estate prices, accompanied by drastic fluctuations in international capital flows. Based on the regression analysis with the date from the first quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2013, this study obtains such results that the growth rate of the actual credit has an important impact on the growth rate of the actual housing prices, which gives an explanation to the 34% housing price increase, while the adding of the explanatory variable of the international capital flow index can only raise the adjustment R2 coefficient of the regression equation by 4 percent. In the sub-samples from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2013, the growth rate of credit can only explain the 27% housing price increase; while the adding of the explanatory variable of the international capital flow index can raise the adjustment R2 coefficient of the regression equation by 10 percent. Therefore, it can be seen that the argument of the US National Bureau of Economic Research is one-sided, which believes that the rationality of taking the capital regulation policy as the counter cycle macro-prudential policy instrument can be questioned, at least it does not suitable for China. During the course of releasing the regulation on the capital accounts in China, the government should take the possibility into account that capital flow may lead to bursting of housing price bubbles and then triggering of financial crisis, especially it should treat the openness of other investment capital accounts cautiously. It is beyond doubt that the capital regulation policy has its rationality to be used as the macro-prudential policy instrument for China, such a great country with an emerging market economy.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期50-64,共15页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
中国政法大学2011年校级人文社科项目"后危机时期我国货币政策的调整战略--从货币政策目标角度分析"
中国政法大学青年教师学术创新团队项目的资助
关键词
国际资本流动
房地产价格
资本账户管制
international capital flows
real estate prices
controls on capital accounts
