摘要
为了更好地开展稻瘟病的防治工作,需要对稻瘟病发生程度具有预报能力。笔者利用通化市1995—2012年气象资料,对稻瘟病促病气象指数进行计算,并与稻瘟病实际发生程度(将稻瘟病发生程度分为3个级别:轻度、中度和重度)进行相关分析,利用统计手段建立稻瘟病发生程度气象等级预报模型。结果表明,模型回报检验总体确率达到76.4%,试报检验效果较好,预报模型具有一定的可用性,可为通化市稻瘟病的防治工作提供一定的科学依据。同时,根据通化市稻瘟病发生的特点,给出了稻瘟病发生程度气象等级预报制作与发布的时间,以及稻瘟病的最佳防治时间。
In order to prevent rice blast effectively, it is necessary to have the forecast capability of the disease.Based on the meteorological data of Tonghua from 1995-2012, the author calculated the disease aggravatingbio-meteorological index of rice blast and conducted the correlation analysis of the occurrence degree of riceblast. The author divided the occurrence degree of rice blast into 3 grades, namely mild, moderate and severeoccurrence. Finally the author created the meteorological forecast model for the occurrence degree of rice blastby using the statistical method. The results showed that： the accurate rate of the model testing was 76.4%, andthe forecast testing was very well, too. The forecast model had a certain level of usability, and it could providescientific evidence for the rice blast prevention and treatment work in Tonghua. Meanwhile, based on thefeatures of rice blast in Tonghua, the author created making and announcing schedules for the meteorologicalforecast of rice blast occurrence degree, andput forward the best prevention time for the rice blast.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2014年第19期308-311,共4页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
吉林省气象局科技创新项目"通化市主要农作物病虫害预测预报技术研究"(200832)
关键词
稻瘟病发生程度
气象等级
预报模型
occurrence degree of rice blast
meteorological grade
forecast model
