摘要
用因子分析和逐步回归方法及电子计算机技术，对地处东北寒地的黑龙江省水稻种植区稻瘟病流行情况和气象因素间的关系进行分析，建立了黑龙江省北方寒地两个水稻主要产区牡丹江和佳木斯地区非特殊灾变年份稻瘟病流行趋势预测数学模型，模型的历史回拟率分别为８４％和８１．９％。根据专家对稻瘟病发生规律与水稻品种、环境条件和气象因素间关系的分析，制定了稻瘟病发生程度的小区修正预报调整因子，经实际应用证明调整因子的评价是准确的。
By using the method of factorial analysis and the computer technique, the relationship between epidemic tendency of rice blast and the climatic factors was analysed in rice districts of Heilongjiang north cold region. The epidemic tendency predictive mathematical models of rice blast for a nonparticular calamity year in Mudanjiang and Jiamusi regions were established respectively. Their historical false coincidence percentages are 84.0% and 81.9% respectively. A better fitness was observed between the actual and theoretical values in recent years. The adjusting factors were laid down in small region by analysing the relationships between rice variety, environment, climate and rice blast.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
1998年第5期27-29,共3页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
黑龙江省"八五"农业科技攻关项目
关键词
稻瘟病
预测
预报
气象因子
水稻
Rice blast Epidemic forecast Revisionary forecast Climatic factors
