摘要
搜集闽北地区浦城和建瓯2个县(市)21 a(1980-2000年)中与早稻发生穗颈瘟相关的气象因子,采用逐步回归统计方法,对相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出引起早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中浦城县的气象预测因子为5月上旬的水汽压、3月中旬的日照时数;建瓯市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的相对湿度和4月中旬的露日数。并建立了两地利用气象因子预测早稻穗颈瘟的数学模型。对该模型进行了2 a的预测验证,分别对两地2003年早稻穗颈瘟的发生进行预测,预测结果与实际穗颈瘟发生情况一致,发生等级均为轻.
The key meteorological factors relating to the early-season rice panicle blast in Pueheng and Jianou of the north of Fujian in 21 a （from 1980 to 2000） were screened out by stepwise multiple regress. The meteorological forecasting factors of Pucheng county were as follows ： atmospheric pressure in the first ten days of May （X42） and sunshine hours in the middle ten days of March （X49）. The meteorological forecasting factors of Jianou town were relative humidity in the middle ten days of March （ X43 ） and dew days in the middle ten days of April （ X64 ）. Then mathematical model on forecasting the early-season rice panicle blast happened in the two sites were developed and validated. At last, the result of forecasting the early-season rice panicle blast by the model in 2003 was consistent with the practical one.
出处
《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期409-411,共3页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition
基金
福建省科技厅资助项目(98-Z-101)
关键词
早稻
穗颈瘟
气象因子
预测模型
闽北地区
early-season flee
panicle blast
meteorological factor
forecasting model
the north of Fujian
