摘要
简要地介绍了三峡工程三期明渠提前截流的背景和方案 ,以宜昌站 1 877～ 2 0 0 0年 1 1月下半月的日流量为基本资料序列 ,分别采用了历时曲线法和泊松过程分析了三期明渠提前截流的水文风险 ,结果表明 ,由于方法固有的差异 ,历时曲线法的计算结果均比泊松过程大。但是 ,两者随着日期变化的走势非常相似 ,都揭示了同一条规律 ,即随着日期的推延 ,水文风险不断减小 ,这与长江干流 1 1月份下半月的水文特性是相符的。因此 。
It is briefly introduced the background and scheme of diversion open channel closure during TGP stage Ⅲ works in advance of schedule.Based on the recorded daily discharge data at Yichang station in later half of November from 1877～2000,the flow duration curve method and Poisson procedure method are repectively applied to analyse the hydrologic risk of diversion open channel closure in advance of schedule.The analysis results demonstrate that for the intrinsic difference between 2 methods,the computational results obtained from flow duration curve methed are all higher than those from Poisson procedure method.However,their variation tendencies along with time are very similar and demonstrate the same law,i.e,with the elapse of time,the hydrologic risk decreases continuously,conforming with the hydrologic characteristics of main stem Yangtze river in later half of November.So,it is feasible to apply flow duration curve method and Poisson procedure method in hydrologic risk analysis of diversion channel closure in advance of schedule during TGP stage Ⅲ works.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2002年第7期6-7,共2页
Yangtze River
关键词
三峡工程
明渠
截流
水文风险分析
泊松过程
历时曲线
open channel closure
Poisson procedure
Duration curve
Hydrologic risk analysis
TGP
