摘要
将可靠性工程研究中的故障树分析法引入工程项目风险管理。应用图形演绎方法构建工程项目风险故障树 ,并探讨项目风险识别模式、风险因素量化等问题 ;基于最小割集法对风险故障树进行旨在识别项目薄弱环节的定性分析 ;用二态系统和概率理论对项目成功度和判定降低项目风险成本最小化的风险源问题进行定量分析。上述方法为工程项目风险管理提供了新的手段。
The fault tree analysis method of the engineering reliability theory is introduced to the risk management of construction projects. The diagram deductive method is proposed to create the project risk fault tree. The project risk made identification and the risk factor quantification is approached. The minimal cut set method for detecting project's weakness is provided. Based on the binary-state system and the probability theory, the project successful degree is calculated and the minimizing of the costs to reduce the project sick is studied.
出处
《现代电力》
2002年第2期95-99,共5页
Modern Electric Power
