摘要
可靠性增长分析指出 ,长征系列运载火箭的可靠性出现了马鞍形 ,其经验教训值得认真记取 ,由于采取了一系列重大的可靠性改进措施 ,自 1 996年 1 0月起 ,长征系列运载火箭连续 2 3次发射成功 ,用 Bayes方法评定可得 ,长征系列运载火箭可靠性的 Bayes估计为 0 .95 8,置信水平为0 .90时 ,可靠性的 Bayes下限为 0 .930。
RG analysis shows that there is a falling off in the reliability of LM. The positive and negative experiences must be memorised seriously.As a result of adopting a series of important reliability improvement measures, 23 consecutive successful launches are performed.Using the Bayesian method, we get the following results: the estimated current reliability is 0.958 and the lower Bayesian limit on the current reliability is 0.930, when confidence level is 0.90.
出处
《导弹与航天运载技术》
北大核心
2002年第2期37-40,共4页
Missiles and Space Vehicles
