摘要
目的基于31省市2007—2016年医疗卫生机构相关数据,分析资源配置效率,进一步对卫生资源进行回归预测,探讨各省市未来5年卫生资源投入产出规模与效率,为医疗卫生机构优化资源配置,提高效率提供依据,为卫生行政部门有效制定相关政策提供参考。方法采用网络DEA分析方法评价各省市效率,运用固定效应模型与随机效应模型进行回归预测,运用主成分分析对评价指标进行综合分析。结果 31省市技术效率仅上海、河南和广东10年间均处于DEA有效;15个省市(占48.34%)节点2效率高于节点1;东南部地区技术效率较高;西部地区10年间技术效率波动大;31省市5年预测效率均值达到0.95,高于10年效率均值;13个城市5年预测技术效率值均为DEA有效;预测模型对各城市卫生资源投入规模有较好的指导作用。结论多数省市资源配置效率低下,省际差异大,东南地区技术效率较高;模型预测效率值有所提高,科学化定性定量的规划卫生资源投入规模与结构是必要的。
Objective To analyze the efficiency of resource allocation and to predict health resources and the efficiency of health resource input and output for next five years in medical institutions in China for providing references to policymaking by health administrative agencies. Methods We extracted data on health resource allocation and the input and output of health resources of the medical institutions in 31 provinces and municipalities between 2007 to 2016 from China Health Statistics Yearbook. Network data envelopment analysis(DEA) method was used to evaluate the efficiency of health resource allocation at province level and panel data fixed effect model and random effect model were adopted to predict the efficiency in next five years. Principal component analysis was used to evaluate indicators used in the study. Results Based on DEA results, the overall technical efficiency of health resources allocation was good only for health institutions in 3 of 31 province-level regions(Shanghai municipality, Henan and Guangdong province) during the 10-year period;the DEA results also demonstrated higher technical efficiency value for medical service capacity output(named node 2) than that for reception capacity output(named node 1) of the medical institutions in 15(48.34%) of the 31, with higher technical efficiency value for medical institutions in southeastern province-level regions and the technical efficiency fluctuated greatly during the period in the western province-level regions. The average annual efficiency predicted for next five years for medical institutions in all the 31 province-level regions is 0.95 and higher than that predicted for next ten years;the average annual efficiency predicted for next five years is within a fair level for medical institutions in 13 province-level regions.Conclusion The efficiency of health resource allocation is at a low level for medical institutions in the majority of provincelevel regions and there is a great regional disparity in the efficiency, with higher efficiency for m
作者
侯亚冰
梁轩
张瑶
徐晨婕
程杨杨
王耀刚
HOU Ya-bing;LIANG Xuan;ZHANG Yao(School of Public Health,Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin 300070,China)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期226-230,共5页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
国家自然科学基金(71473175
71673199
71704130)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2016T90211)
关键词
效率
网络DEA模型
面板数据
混合效应模型
预测
efficiency
network data envelopment analysis model
panel data
mixed effect model
prediction
