摘要
作为气候变化风险问题之一,高温热浪已引起各国政府与学术界的普遍关注。基于VSD(The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram)模型,文章构建了高温热浪风险评价指标体系,同时引入空间关联指数,探讨了福建省高温热浪风险时空分异特征、热点区演化以及类型划分。结果表明:(1) 2000-2015年,福建省高温热浪风险水平整体呈下降趋势,且不同城市间风险等级转化明显;(2)高温热浪风险空间为跳跃变化的"圈层"结构,风险指数呈由中心向外围"低-高-低"变化;(3)高温热浪风险的空间集聚程度整体趋于减小,热点区呈收缩态势并由"多核心"演变为"双核心"结构,冷点区则稳定分布于闽东北的宁德地区;(4)福建省高温热浪风险划分为5大类型,即省会-副省级高风险区、市辖区次高风险区、河谷中风险区、沿海平原次低风险区以及闽东-内陆山区低风险区。研究结果能够为未来福建省高温热浪风险格局演变提供预判依据,并为风险管理和合理布局公共服务设施提供决策参考。
As one of the climate change risk which profoundly affected the natural environment and human society,heat waves has aroused increasing attentions all around the world.Based on VSD (The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram),the evaluation index system of t heat waves risk is constructed.With the method of exploratory spatial data analysis,the spatial-temporal characteristic,hot spots evolution and spatial differentiation of heat waves risk in Fujian Province from 2000to 2015are carefully examined.The results show that:①The index of heat waves risk is decreasing in Fujian Province,at the same time,the internal transitions among different risk levels are obvious.②The spatial distribution of heat waves risk in Fujian Province has the "layer structure",and the risk index varies from central to peripheral areas as characteristic of "low-high-low".③The spatial agglomeration degree of heat waves risk decreases.The hot spots presents a tendency of shrinking,from "multi-core"to "dual core",while the cold spots presents a tendency of stabilizing in the northeast.④The heat waves risk in Fujian Province can be divided into 5 types,including high risk area of capital-deputy provincial area,sub-high risk area of prefecture-level city district,medium risk area of river valley,sub-low risk area of coastal plain,and low risk area of eastern-inland mountainous area.This result is the prejudgment of spatial evolvement of heat waves risk of Fujian Province in the future.It also can provide references for risk management and public service facilities.
作者
金星星
祁新华
陆玉麒
叶士琳
王毅
JIN Xingxing;QI Xinhua;LU Yuqi;YE Shilin;WANG Yi(College of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007,China;School of Ecnomics and Management,Nanjng University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)
出处
《地球信息科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期1820-1829,共10页
Journal of Geo-information Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0502900)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41430635)
教育部人文社会科学项目(14YJCZH112)
福建省科技厅公益类项目(K3-360)~~
关键词
高温热浪风险
评估
空间分异
类型划分
福建省
heat waves risk
evaluation
spatial differentiation
type classification
Fujian Province
