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雷电流幅值概率分布函数的分段拟合方法 被引量:4

Sectioned Fitting Method of Probability Distribution Function of Lightning Current Amplitude
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摘要 为了更有效地利用雷电定位系统数据评估输电线路的雷击跳闸风险,以东莞地区1999—2008年雷电流幅值数据为例,分析了规程推荐公式、IEEE推荐公式及其改进公式的拟合曲线与实际雷电流幅值概率分布的偏差,在此基础上提出了雷电流幅值概率分布函数的分段拟合方法,并进行了连续性修正.最后,分别采用规程推荐公式、IEEE改进公式和文中拟合公式计算东莞地区110kV、220kV、500kV三个电压等级下的输电线路雷击跳闸率,并与实际值进行对比.结果表明:采用文中方法得到的雷电流幅值概率分布函数曲线与自然概率曲线的相关性最强,仅牺牲了分段点附近的相关性;采用文中分段拟合方法计算得到的110kV、220kV电压等级输电线路雷击跳闸率与实际运行数据较相符,而对500kV电压等级线路雷电跳闸率的计算存在偏差. In order to make full use of the lightning location system to assess the lightning trip-out risk of transmission lines,the lightning current amplitude data of Dongguan area from 1999 to 2008 were used to perform a statistical and comparative analysis,analysing that the fitting curves respectively obtained by the regular method and the IEEE recommended formula and the improved IEEE formula all deviate from the actual current amplitude probability distribution.Then,a sectioned fitting method of probability distribution function for the lightning current amplitude was proposed,followed with a correction of the continuity of functions.Moreover,the lightning trip-out rate of 110kV,220kV and 500kV transmission lines for Dongguan area were calculated respectively by the regular method,the improved IEEE formula and the proposed fitting method.The results were finally compared with the measured ones.It is demonstrated that the proposed method helps to obtain a probability distribution function which is closely correlated to the natural probability curve,only with a sacrifice of correlation near the sectional point; and that the lightning trip-out rate obtained by the proposed method is consistent with the actual operational data of 110kV and 220kV transmission lines,but deviates from that of 500kV transmission lines.
出处 《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第4期40-45,共6页 Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金 广东省科技计划项目(DK0010DG0006)
关键词 雷电流幅值 概率分布 雷电定位数据 分段拟合 数值分析 自然概率曲线 雷击跳闸率 lightning current amplitude probability distribution lightning location data sectioned fitting numerical analysis natural probability curve lightning trip-out rate
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