摘要
提出了户外电气设备雷击在线预警方法 ,该方法选取平均雷暴频率、平均雷暴电流强度、平均雷暴电荷、平均雷暴能量和平均雷暴上升陡度5个雷暴参数,应用灰色关联方法分析各个参数与雷击事件的相关度,得出关联程度最高的一项雷暴参数作为雷击预警指标。利用历史雷暴数据计算得到雷击预警门槛值,比较该预警门槛值与实时预测数据,进行户外电气设备雷击预警并计算雷击概率。应用灰色关联方法分析历史统计数据得出的预警模型具有更高的可信度,实际例子证明了本方法的有效性。
An online outdoor electrical equipment lightning warning method is put forward.Based on five thunderstorm parameters,namely average frequency,average current density,average electric charge,average electric energy and average up gradient,grey correlation analysis are applied to analyze the correlation between each parameter and lightning events.The thunderstorm parameter with highest correlation is determined as the warning index.The lightning warning threshold value is calculated by using historical data.Lightning warning and probability calculation of outdoor electrical equipment is performed by comparison between the threshold value and real-time prediction data.The effectiveness and reliability of this method are proved by an example.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期20-23,共4页
Electric Power
关键词
雷击
预警模型
灰色
关联方法
lightning
warning model
gray
relation analysis
