摘要
利用或有权益理论,在收集和整编多方数据的基础上,通过构建简化的地方政府或有权益资产负债表,研究地方政府债务规模与资产价值变动对地方政府性债务风险的影响,并对我国31个省份地方政府债务展开实证研究,其结果表明,目前我国地方政府性债务风险总体可控;地方政府性债务风险与地方政府资产价值显著负相关,与债务规模正相关,但并不显著;当地方政府债务规模持续增长且资产价值不断缩减时,债务风险状况会加速恶化,甚至很有可能出现违约。为此,在妥善处理存量债务且严格控制新增债务的同时,评估债务所形成的资产规模,厘清地方政府可变现的偿债资产,增强偿债能力,是我国地方政府债务管理的当务之急。
Using the Contingent Claims Approach( CCA),this paper measures debt risk of 31 Chineselocal provincial governments in 2013,presents several scenarios where the local governments' asset value and debt scale change,analyzes and assesses relevant movements of the risk indicators. The results suggest that the debt risk of China's local provincial governments is still in control. It positively associates with the debt scale of local government and negatively associates with the asset value of local government,and becomes worse or even defaults when debt scale increases or asset value reduces. So the most important job for the local government debt management is to treat the existing debt,control the increasing debt,evaluate the assets that the debt formed,and improve the debt paying ability.
出处
《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期89-97,154-155,共9页
Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJA790111)
上海市浦江人才项目(11PJC051)的阶段性成果
华东师范大学预研究项目的资助
