摘要
地方政府债务风险具有传染性,需要监测其系统性风险。而系统性风险测度指标有多种,指标的有效选用就成为必须研究的问题。依据已有的指标,本文设计了监测地方政府债务系统性风险的估算原理,收集2005年至2019年的中国31个省市的相关数据,分别估算了这些指标值,并利用等级排序法和截面值法比较了这些指标的有效性,用最有效指标识别预测了系统重要性地方政府。研究发现,下行ΔCoES的监测效果较好,其应用效果也较好。该研究结果为精准监测我国地方政府债务系统性风险提供了参考。
the risk of local government debt is infectious,and its systemic risk needs to be monitored.There are many kinds of systemic risk measurement indicators,so it is necessary to study the effective selection of indicators.According to the existing indicators,this paper designs the estimation principle of monitoring the systemic risk of local government debt,collects the relevant data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2019,estimates the values of these indicators respectively,compares the effectiveness of these indicators by using the hierarchical ranking method and the section value method,and identifies and predicts the systemically important local government with the most effective indicators.It is found that the monitoring effect of downwardΔCOEs is good,and its application effect is also good.The results provide a reference for the accurate monitoring of the systemic risk of local government debt in China.
作者
王周伟
崔艺馨
Wang Zhouwei;Cui Yixin(School of Finance and Business,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234)
出处
《金融管理研究》
2020年第2期318-351,共34页
The Journal of Finance and Management Research
基金
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(17YJA790075)《空间网络视域中的地方政府债务系统性风险评估研究》资助
