摘要
在对城市化、房地产投资和经济增长之间相互作用机制进行分析的基础上,应用协整理论和格兰杰因果性检验研究了1990—2012年河南省城市化、房地产投资与经济增长之间的关系。协整检验表明:城市化、房地产投资与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果性检验表明:城市化是促进经济增长的长期原因,而房地产投资并不是促进经济增长的长期原因;城市化是房地产投资增加的长期原因,房地产投资对城市化没有明显的推动作用。基于此,应采取措施加快城市化进程,完善房地产投资结构,合理调控房价,使城市化、房地产投资与国民经济协调发展。
Based on the analysis of interplay mechanism among urbanization, real estate investment and economic growth, the paper studied the relationship among them in Henan Province from 1990 to 2010 with cointegration theory and Granger causality test. The cointegration test shows that there is a stable equilibrium relationship among them. The Granger causality test shows ： Urbanization is the long term cause of economic growth, but real estate investment isn＇ t the long term cause of economic growth; Urbanization is the long term cause of real estate investment,hut real estate investment can＇ t promopt urbanization obviously. Therefore, we should accelerate the course of urbanization, improve the structure of real estate investment, control price reasonbly for coordinate development of urbanization, real estate investment and national economy.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期64-68,共5页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY085)
关键词
城市化
房地产投资
经济增长
作用机制
实证分析
河南省
urbanization
real estate investment
economic growth
interplay mechanism
empirical analysis
Henan Province
