摘要
基手运城市13个台站1971～2010年间的冬小麦和秋粮单产、作物生长期间的气温、降水和日照等地面资料以及海温、高度场资料．运用滑动平均、调和权重、逐步回归等方法分析了气象条件与冬小麦和秋粮单产的相关关系，分别建立了冬小麦、秋粮产量各种预报模型，并在此基础上建立了冬小麦、秋粮产量综合预报模型，其拟合效果和试报效果甚佳，可投入业务应用。
Based on data of winter wheat, autumn grain yield per unit area and the air temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in crops growth period of Yuncheng during 1971 -2010, as well as sea surface temperature and height field, using the moving average method, harmonic weighting method, stepwise regression method, the relationship between meteorological conditions and winter wheat and grain yield per unit area was analyzed. The various forecasting model of winter wheat and autumn grain yield were established. On the basis of this, the comprehensive prediction models were constructed, fitting and forecast effect is very good, which can be routinely operated in grain yield forecasting business.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2014年第17期5583-5586,5641,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
粮食产量
运城市
综合预报模型
Grain yield
Yuncheng
Integrated prediction model
