摘要
介绍了我国粮食产量综合预测方法及其预测系统的结构与特性。系统的模型体系包括气象预测模型、社会经济因素预测模型、社会经济和气象因子综合预测模型，通过实例分析了这３个不同预测模型的历史拟合情况和预报效果。结果表明，综合模型的预测效果比单一模型好，但其业务化程度较低，需要进一步改进。
The synthetic method and system structure of grain yield forecasting were introduced. The system includes some forecasting models, such as meteorological, socioeconomic and the synthetic of both. Historical fitting and forecasting effect of three different models were analyzed by studying some cases. The result shows that the synthetic model is better than unitary model, but improvement is still needed for operation.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第5期19-22,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
