摘要
从STIRPAT方程出发,运用1997—2010年中国省市区面板数据建立变参数模型,对我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素进行实证分析,着重研究技术进步对碳减排的动态影响。研究结果表明:技术进步、经济发展和人口数量与中国的碳排放存在长期稳定的协整关系,其中,经济发展对碳排放具有较强的促进作用,人口数量对碳排放的影响呈现双向特征,而技术进步会在一定程度上抑制碳排放。要从根本上解决碳排放问题,则需要依靠技术进步,加大R&D活动中对低碳技术的研发投入,提高能源利用效率。
Starting from the STIRPAT equation, using panel data of Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2010, this paper establishes a variable parameter model to conduct empirical analysis on the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions, and especially probe into the dynamic effects of technology advance on carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results show that there is a long- term stable co -integration relationship between the technology advance, economic development, population and carbon dioxide emissions in China. While economic development increases carbon emissions, the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions is mutual, but the technology advances will restrain the carbon dioxide emissions to a certain extent. In order to solve the problem of carbon emissions fundamentally, we need to rely on technology advance, and increase the investment of low - carbon technologies in R＆D activities to improve energy efficiency.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第11期215-220,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"区域二氧化碳排放绩效
碳排放强度影响因素及减排对策研究"(41101569)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"基于空间分异的我国农村金融改革特色化研究"(12YJA790025)
徐州工程学院校级课题"战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合机制研究"(XKY2012603)
徐州市科技计划一般项目"协同创新培育徐州战略性新兴产业发展路径与对策研究"(XM13B033)
关键词
碳排放
技术进步
变参数模型
单位根检验
协整检验
carbon dioxide emission
technology advance
variable parameter model
unit root test
co - integration test
