摘要
本文使用空间动态面板数据模型和1952—2008年省级GDP数据分析中国经济增长的收敛性,发现中国各省人均GDP总体上不存在收敛性;落后省份的增长速度并不比富裕省份的增长速度高。此外,中国各省人均GDP有一定的空间相关性,但总体上不是很强。我们进一步对东部、中部、西部三个地区分别进行回归,发现东部地区经济不收敛,空间效应明显;而中西部地区经济收敛,空间效应不明显。这说明中国地区发展不平衡是各省经济增长总体上缺乏收敛性的原因之一。
This paper studies the convergence of provincial economies in China by employing Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model and GDP data from 1952 to 2008. We find that there is no overall growth convergence among provinces in China and the spatial correlationis weak. We further study ＂club convergence＂ by grouping provinces into eastern, middle, and western regions respectively and find that provinces in eastern region exhibit divergence with overall significant spatial correlation while those in other two regions show convergence with little spatial correlation. This suggests that the lack of convergence is partially caused by the unbalanced development across regions.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期1171-1194,共24页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71171005,71322105)的支持
