摘要
水果产量信息对于中国水果生产、流通、加工、消费等都有重要意义,水果产量变动的随机性、非线性、波动性和复杂性,给水果产量的中长期预测带来了很大的困扰。为了更准确地预测中国水果产量,尝试将灰色动态预测与马尔科夫模型结合起来,对中国水果及主要水果品种的产量进行预测。结果表明:灰色马尔科夫模型预测的精度和准确性较高,灰色马尔科夫模型预测2017年中国园林水果的产量为22 141万t,各主要水果品种的产量近年也继续保持增长趋势。最后,根据中国水果产量的预测情况,基于资源禀赋和保障粮食安全的考虑,认为中国水果产业要在保证粮食安全的基础上有序发展,同时要根据地区资源环境特征、水果生产特点和区域社会经济状况调整水果优势区域布局。
Fruit yield information is of great significance for fruit production, circulation, processing and consumption in China. The randomness, nonlinearity, volatility and complexity of fruit yield change bother the medium and long term forecast of fruit yield greatly. In order to predict China＇s fruit yield more accurately, we attempted to combine gray dynamic prediction and Markov Model together to predict the yields of fruit and its main varieties in China. The results showed that the Grey Markov Model presented higher degree of precision and accuracy, which predicted that the output of garden fruit in China was 221.41 million tons in 2017 and the main varieties of fi＇uit maintained growth trend in recent years. Finally, according to the forecast results and based on the consideration of resources endowment and food security, this research suggested that China＇s fruit industry should ensure its orderly development on the basis of food security; meanwhile, it should adjust the fruit advantage region distribution according to regional resources and environmental characteristics, fruit production characteristics and regional socio-economic status.
出处
《农业展望》
2014年第4期43-49,共7页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费(CARS-27-07B)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2013SC37)
