摘要
十多年来，中国城镇化脱离了循序渐进的原则，出现了冒进城镇化和贫困城镇化，不仅没有有效地启动内需，反而在一定程度上抑制了内需。实现启动内需，城镇化必须坚守产业化为基础的原则。本文首先建立了一个新经济地理模型，从理论上阐述了产业化对城镇化的支撑作用。然后，借助非农产业数据，比较分析了2001～2011年中国城市非农产业增加值与从业人员的变化，探讨了“十二五”时期的中国城镇化战略。东部地区“涓滴一扩散”效应已经显现，未来城镇化的空间形态是均衡化；中西部地区集聚仍是主要态势，都市圈／城市群是城镇化的主要形态。根据产业增加值与从业人员的变化，将全国分为四类区域。增加值和就业都增长的区域是城镇化的重点区域，未来的重点是提高城镇化质量；增加值份额增加、就业份额下降的区域重视发展吸收就业能力强的产业，提高城镇化的持续性；增加值份额下降、就业份额增加的区域通过产业升级和发展服务业，提高产业附加值，调整结构偏差；增加值和就业都下降的大面积连片区域，则要发展省域增长极，避免空心化。
The financial crises in 2008 made trade protectionism emerged again and the demand of developed countries from foreign countries reduce rapidly. China, a country which relies considerably on export, is affected heavily. At the same time, after more than three decades of growth, the growth model of China driven by resources has shown signs of diminishing returns and speed of economic growth is gradually slowing down. The sources of e- conomy in China must turn to domestic demand, away from foreign markets, in order to sustain growth. Urbanization can bring much investment, create huge demand and promote industrial upgrade. Therefore, the central government of China regards urbanization as an important strategy of raising domestic demand in the twelfth five-year plan. However, the urbanization of China is rash in past ten more years and results in many challenging problems, such as unemployment, land spread, pollution and income disparity, which did not effectively raise but restrict the domestic demand to some extent. Industries are the foundation of urbanization. The pattern and speed of urbanization is determined by industrialization. Firstly, a new economic geography model is established in order to specify the role of industrialization on urbanization. Then, based on the data of value-added and employee of the second and third sectors in prefectural level, the share changes of value-added and employee of the second and third sectors from 2001 to 2011 is calculated and visualized by the software of ArcGIS. Comparing and analyzing the changes of shares in value-added and employee, we find that the difference of urbanization between the eastern and central-western re- gions is remarkable. The trickle-down and spread effects in the eastern region have emerged and balanced develop- ment is the direction of this region in the future. Especially, the peripheries of the three biggest metropolitan areas- Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and the developing areas of Shandong, Jiangsu and G
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期37-44,共8页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
中国博士后科学基金资助项目"马歇尔与雅各布斯外部性"(2013M530789)
美国北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校资助项目"Geography and Agglomeration Economies"(P-1-04774)
