摘要
本文运用产品层面的H-K贸易分解框架,深入总体贸易数据内部,构建以双边贸易边际强度为自变量,经济周期协动性为因变量的面板数据分析模型,分别考察出口广度边际、数量边际与价格边际对东亚10经济体周期协动性的作用效果,进而揭示其协动性的深层次原因。研究结果表明:双边广度边际强度对东亚经济周期协动性具有显著正效应,是其协动性的主要贸易传导渠道;双边数量边际强度则在一定程度上削弱了其协动性;双边价格边际强度的效应不显著。研究还发现,产业结构相似度、金融结构相似度等非贸易因素促进了东亚经济周期协动性,美国经济变动对东亚10经济体间的周期协同性同样具有正向作用。
In contrast with previous studies focusing on identifying the con- ductive mechanism of business cycle co-movement of East Asian countries with aggregated trade flow data, this research adopts the H-K （2005） technique to de- compose the export value of East Asian countries into three margins： extent, quan- tity and price and then further examines the effects of each margin on the syn- chronization of business cycle. The following conclusions are arrived at： the bilat- eral extensive margin has positive and robust effects on the business cycle co-movement; the bilateral quantity margin has negative effects on the co-move- ment; the bilateral price margin has no obvious effects; other non-trade factors, such as similarity of industrial and financial structures also have a certain degree of positive effects.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期156-166,共11页
Journal of International Trade
关键词
经济周期协动
贸易传导
贸易三元边际
东亚
Business cycle co-movement
Conduction of trade
Three marginsof trade
East Asian
