摘要
本文从经济周期和经济政策不确定性视角就对华贸易摩擦展开研究,结果发现经济下行周期和经济政策不确定性显著增加了贸易摩擦数量,东道国则是对华贸易摩擦的“始作俑者”。进一步扩展性研究发现,经济下行周期显著加重经济政策不确定性对贸易摩擦的影响。立足制度环境差异视角的研究发现,双边经济增长动力差异和政治制度差异与贸易摩擦显著正相关,经济下行周期则强化了上述因素对贸易摩擦的正向影响。立足实证结论,经济下行局面的改善和政策稳健性的提升有助于缓和贸易争端。
This paper studies trade frictions with China from the perspective of economic cycle and economic policy uncertainty.The results show that economic downturn cycle and economic policy uncertainty significantly increase the number of trade frictions,and the host country is the"initiator"of trade frictions with China.Further research shows that the economic downturn cycle significantly increases the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade friction.From the perspective of institutional environment differences,it is found that there is a significant positive correlation between bilateral economic growth dynamics and political system differences and trade frictions,while the economic downturn cycle strengthens the positive impact of the above factors on trade frictions.Based on the empirical conclusion,the improvement of economic downturn and the improvement of policy robustness will help to ease trade disputes.
作者
贾玉成
吕静韦
Jia Yu-cheng;Lv Jing-wei
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期75-86,共12页
Economist
基金
天津社会科学院市情研究中心课题“基于自贸区优势下的‘洋楼经济业态’研究”(SQZX19-05)
天津社会科学院京津冀协同中心课题“京津冀协同发展中开放经济结构发展战略研究”(JJJZX19-08)。
关键词
经济周期
经济政策不确定性
制度环境差异
贸易摩擦
Economic Cycle
Economic Policy Uncertainty
Institutional Environmental Differences
Trade Friction
