摘要
目的建立浙江省儿童肠道传染病传播风险评估模型，筛选高危因素，了解浙江省儿童肠道传染病传播风险现状。方法通过头脑风暴法建立浙江省儿童肠道传染病传播风险列表，咨询55位专家获得专家评分，采用层次分析法建立评估模型；其后于2012年4月和5月，选取位于浙江省北部和西南部的杭州市萧山区和龙游县，根据随机的方式，在其中各选一个农村和一个城镇社区，采用人户调查的方式，对家庭中有13岁及以下儿童的监护人，开展儿童肠道传染病传播风险现场调查；对现场调查数据进行描述性分析后，对照风险评估模型列表，计算各项风险因素实际发生频率与各自权重的乘积，汇总后计算总风险得分。使用SPSS13．0统计软件分析，计数资料采用t检验，P＜0．05为差异有统计学意义。结果层次分析法建立的评估模型中准则层包括儿童卫生习惯、家庭环境、社区环境，指标层有接触病例等15项，模型具有较好的一致性和满意度，准则层CI=0．0193，CR=0．0332，指标层各项CI和CR也均小于0．10。在社区共调查458人，监护人年龄以25～42岁为主，共380人（占82．97％），职业主要为家务及待业、服务业和工人，共202人，占44．10％，有53．49％的儿童年龄在5岁以下，男女性别比为1．36：1，散居儿童占38．64％。综合评分显示浙江省社区儿童肠道传染病传播风险综合评分为16．40分（满分100分），其中接触患者（5．84）、家庭经济状况差（1．78）和经常饮生水（1．74）是重要的风险因素。城镇和农村差异无统计学意义（P＞0．05）。结论总体看来，浙江省社区儿童肠道传染病存在一定的传播风险，尽管风险并不严重，但要采取措施以减少社区内患病儿童与正常儿童的接触；利用层次分析法建立风险评估模型，结合现场调查问卷进行传染病传播风险评
Objective To establish a risk assessment model for intestinal communicable disease transmission in children based on analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method, and to identify the risk factors. Methods Risk lists of communicable diseases transmission were made using brainstorming method, which were then scored by 55 experts. AHP was used to establish risk assessment model. In April and May, 2012, a face-to- face survey was conducted among children aged 13 and under or their guardians selected randomly in Xiaoshan district and Longyou county, which located in north and southwest Zhejiang province. Data were analyzed by descriptive analysis method, and the final score of each risk factor was calculated based on the actual occur- rence and the product of weight. SPSS 13.0 was used to analyze data. Results In the risk assessment model, there were rule layer and index layer which included hygienic habits of children, family environment,community environment in rule layer, and case contact history and other 14 elements in index layer. The model had high consistency and satisfaction with the CI and CR less than 0. 10 in both rule layer and index layers. A total of 458 participants in community were surveyed, and majority （82.97%） were guardians aged 25 42 years working as household, worker, or unemployed. 53.49% of children were younger than 5 years with the male to female ratio of 1.36 % 1 and scattered children accounting for 38.64G. The overall risk score of chil- dren intestinal communicable disease transmission in community was 16.40 （out of 100）. The major risk fac- tors were found to be case contact history （5.84）, poor family finance （1.78）, and drinking tap water （1.74）. There was no significant difference between individuals from rural and urban areas （P〉0.05）. Con- clusions Although the risk of children intestinal communicable disease transmission is not very high in Zhe- jiang community, and preventive measures still need to be taken to avoid children from contacting cases. Risk a
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2014年第2期86-90,共5页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划(2012KYB048)
关键词
风险评估
儿童肠道传染病
层次分析法
Risk assessment
Children intestinal communicable disease
Analytic hierarchy process
