摘要
大豆消费迅猛增长是近年来中国农业发展中一个引人注目的问题。在识别大豆消费结构变化对需求增长影响的基础上,定量分析了宏观经济变量对大豆消费的影响,并模拟了中国大豆需求可能的增长趋势。研究表明,中国正由直接食用大豆向间接消费转变。压榨需求增长是消费快速扩张的主要原因。家庭豆油消费是拉动压榨需求增长的原因,但其重要性下降。经济增长与城镇化率都与大豆消费正相关,但作用程度有所不同。未来一段时间大豆需求仍将持续快速增长,但增长速度逐步减缓。
The rapid growth of soybean consumption is a remarkable issue in the process of China＇s opened agricultural market for the past few years.Based on the indentification of soybean consumption structures and their influence on soybean demand growth,the impacts of economic development and urbanization on soybean consumption were analyzed by using econometrics model,and the growth trend for demand was simulated.Results showed that soybean demand pattern was shifting from direct consumption for food to derived demand.Crushing consumption growth was the main reason of soybean demand expansion,and edible oil consumption growth was a key of driving rising soybean crushing,whereas,its importance gradually declined in the last 10 year compared to 1990s＇.Economic growth and urbanization were all positively correlated with soybean consumption.China＇s soybean demand would continue to grow for the next 10 years,but the growth rate gradually slowed down.
出处
《中国食物与营养》
2014年第2期43-48,共6页
Food and Nutrition in China
关键词
经济发展
城镇化
大豆
需求增长
economic development
urbanization
soybean
demand growth
