摘要
通过主成分分析法将金融发展要素分为基于金融结构论的金融中介发展指标及资本市场发展指标,运用1993 ～2011年的年度数据对我国金融发展的真实水平与经济增长的长期均衡关系进行协整分析,并建立了反映短期波动的误差修正模型（ECM）.分析结果表明：金融发展在长期对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,金融中介发展对经济增长的促进作用大于资本市场;在短期,我国金融中介及资本市场的发展对经济增长影响不显著.
With the method of factor analysis, the paper divides the index system of financial development into financial in- termediary factor and capital market development factor. It examines the long run and short run relationship between finan- cial development and economic growth in China during 1993 -2011 based on these two sets of indicators. According to the results of the co-integration and error correction model （ECM） , the empirical study finds that there is a long run relationship between financial intermediary, capital market development and economic growth. The financial intermediary development has more significant positive effects on promoting economic growth than capital market. In the short run, however, financial development has no significant influence on economic growth.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期16-20,共5页
Soft Science
基金
湖北省软科学研究项目(2012GKA00307)
广义虚拟经济研究专项项目(GX2011-1006(Y))
关键词
金融中介
资本市场
经济增长
主成分分析
financial intermediary
capital market
economic growth
principle component analysis
ECM
